Prediction Markets Emerge as Retail’s New Speculative ‘Toy,’ Barclays Says
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Prediction markets have surged since the 2024 U.S. election as retail traders embrace binary outcome contracts, with Kalshi and Polymarket topping $24 billion in notional volume by April, up from under $5 billion. Barclays says the market’s rapid retail adoption shows growth potential for crypto and DeFi prediction products but remains tiny versus the $57 trillion 0DTE options market, highlighting both expansion opportunities and elevated risk.
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- Prediction markets have surged since the 2024 election, becoming retail’s latest high-risk trade.
- Kalshi and Polymarket topped $24 billion in notional volume by April, up from under $5 billion.
- Barclays says prediction markets are rising fast but remain far below the $57 trillion 0DTE market.
Prediction markets are moving from niche internet corners into retail trading’s main arena, with Barclays calling them “retail’s shiny new toy.” The phrase reflects a rapid volume surge since the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The appeal is simple. Traders buy contracts linked to real-world outcomes, from elections and sports to economic data and climate events. Instead of tracking a company’s earnings, they trade a yes-or-no result.
Retail Traders Move Beyond Stocks and Crypto
Barclays analysts said monthly notional volume on prediction platforms has climb…
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