Gold Price Forecast: Can Bullion Hold $4,000 With Brent Above $90?

Gold climbed back above $4,000 per ounce on Monday after spending the weekend just below the closely watched psychological level. Brent crude also moved past $90 per barrel, while several Federal Reserve officials began openly discussing the possibility of another interest rate increase as early as July.

The precious metal lost around 2.5% over the previous week and briefly fell below $4,000. Gold first reached that level in late June, marking its strongest price since November 2025.

Oil Price Surge Revives Inflation Concerns

Renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed energy prices sharply higher and brought inflation risks back into focus.

The United States carried out another strike against Iran, reportedly the ninth in recent nights. Two US service members were killed in Jordan, while American allies reported additional Iranian attacks on Sunday.

Brent crude climbed above $90 per barrel as traders assessed the risk of further disruptions to regional energy supplies. The move complicated the inflation outlook, even though June data had indicated that price pressures were beginning to ease.

Higher oil prices can quickly feed into transportation, manufacturing, and consumer costs, making the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight more difficult.

Fed Officials Raise the Possibility of Another Rate Hike

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack joined a growing group of policymakers suggesting that borrowing costs may need to rise again.

Her comments point to a potentially heated debate at the Fed’s next policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh has signaled that the central bank remains focused on restoring price stability and is unwilling to tolerate a prolonged period of elevated inflation.

Speaking before Congress, the Fed chair emphasized that policymakers would not allow inflation to remain persistently above target.

The change in tone has affected expectations across financial markets. Rising interest rates generally strengthen the appeal of yield-bearing assets while creating pressure for gold, which does not generate interest or dividends.

Gold Traders Remain Positioned for Further Gains

Despite last week’s decline, speculative positioning suggests that many traders remain optimistic about gold’s longer-term outlook.

According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data covering the week through July 14, speculators increased their net long position in COMEX gold futures to 119,147 contracts.

The rise indicates that investors are still preparing for another move higher, even after the recent correction.

Gold has now recovered above $4,000, but whether it can hold the level remains uncertain.

Precious Metals Face Conflicting Market Forces

Gold’s pullback followed broader bearish signals across the precious metals market. Silver also suffered a sharp decline, while gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset has offered only limited support during the latest military escalation.

Geopolitical conflict would normally increase demand for gold. However, the current crisis is also driving oil prices higher, raising inflation expectations and increasing the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.

That creates a difficult environment for the metal.

On one side, military uncertainty and risks to global energy supplies encourage investors to seek protection in gold. On the other, expectations of higher interest rates make bonds, cash, and other income-producing assets more attractive.

This tension could limit the safe-haven demand generated by the conflict in the Persian Gulf.

Can Gold Hold Above $4,000?

Gold’s ability to defend the $4,000 level will likely depend on two major factors: the direction of oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s next signals on monetary policy.

A continued rise in crude prices could reinforce inflation fears and increase pressure on the Fed to tighten policy. That would create another potential headwind for gold.

However, further geopolitical escalation or signs of weakening economic growth could restore stronger demand for defensive assets.

For now, the market remains highly sensitive to new developments, with traders closely watching central bank commentary, oil prices, and updates from the Middle East.