Crude Oil Prices: Brent Targets $90 While OPEC+ Supply Caps Gains

Crude oil prices held close to one-week highs Tuesday as fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement kept supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus. Brent remained near $88 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate held above $82, leaving traders to weigh severe shipping disruption against recovering OPEC+ supply and a softer global demand outlook.

Oil Prices Today: Hormuz Standoff Keeps Supply Risk Elevated

At 4:05 a.m. GMT on Aug. 11, Brent crude futures traded at $87.62 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures stood at $82.08. Both benchmarks had surged more than 5% Monday as optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran faded. Brent briefly reached $88.09 Tuesday and WTI touched $82.52, their highest levels since late July.

The physical market explains why geopolitical risk remains so important. Only six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared with a 10-day average of roughly 11 and about 130 to 140 ships per day before the war. That dramatic reduction shows that normal shipping conditions remain a long way off even as markets continue to price in the possibility of a negotiated solution.

Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged about 10.7 million barrels per day in July, roughly 40% below pre-war levels. Alternative pipelines, redirected cargoes and recovering production have softened the immediate shock, but restricted Gulf flows continue to leave the market vulnerable to further escalation.

Brent Crude Oil Tests the $88-$90 Area

The daily Brent crude oil chart shows a sharp recovery from the July low near $71. Brent was trading around $87.93 when the chart was captured on Aug. 11, after rebounding from another pullback below $80 earlier this month.

The immediate test is the $88-$90 region, where recent price action has repeatedly slowed. A sustained break above that area would strengthen the recovery and could bring the previous July price zone around $92-$94 back into focus.

Failure to clear $90, however, would leave Brent vulnerable to another consolidation. The $84 area is the first visible support, followed by the recent August lows near $79-$80.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart. Source: TradingView/ X

WTI Crude Oil Eyes $83.75 Breakout

The four-hour WTI cash chart paints a similarly constructive short-term picture. WTI has recovered above $82 after rebounding from the mid-$70s, with momentum improving as price moves above the moving averages displayed on the chart.

Immediate resistance sits at $83.75. A clean breakout above that level would put $86.25 in focus, followed by $88.10 if buying momentum persists.

Support is marked at $80.10, with a deeper level near $78.10. The 14-period RSI is around 63, showing positive momentum without yet reaching traditionally overbought territory.

That makes $80.10 an important short-term line for bulls. Holding above it would preserve the current recovery, while a break below $78.10 would weaken the setup considerably.

WTI Crude Oil 4-Hour Chart. Source: TradewithKrutikaa (@Financewith_dia) / TradingView

OPEC+ Supply Recovery Could Limit the Oil Rally

The bullish geopolitical picture has an important counterweight: more OPEC supply is returning to the market. OPEC production rose by about 1.17 million barrels per day in July to 19.85 million bpd, led by recovering Gulf producers.

OPEC+ has also agreed to raise September production quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day, completing the planned rollback of a 1.65 million-bpd layer of voluntary cuts.

Demand offers another reason for caution. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by about 1 million bpd in 2026, although it forecasts a 2 million-bpd rebound in 2027. Its outlook still depends heavily on improving Gulf shipping and supply conditions.

For now, crude oil prices remain supported by the unresolved Hormuz disruption. Brent needs to establish itself above $90 to extend the rally, while WTI must clear $83.75. Any diplomatic breakthrough that restores meaningful traffic through the Strait could quickly reduce the geopolitical premium, while prolonged disruption would keep supply risks tilted to the upside.