The company expects to sell about 555.6 million of its Class A shares at a fixed price of $135 each, raising $75 billion at an implied valuation of a staggering $1.77 trillion.

And while retail enthusiasm for direct ownership at launch is already intense, chasing SPCX at the open carries real and serious risks.

For disciplined investors, passive vehicles like the Vanguard S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) may offer a smarter, steadier path to investing in SpaceX.

Risks of buying SpaceX stock on market debut

The headline numbers are difficult to ignore. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year, a 33% year-over-year increase, yet posted a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion for 2025.

In Q1 alone, its net loss came in at an alarming $4.3 billion, with much of it attributed to its newly integrated AI segment and $3 billion in capex dedicated to developing the Starship rocket.

At a $1.77 trillion valuation against $18.7 billion in revenue, SPCX will price at an “egregiously” stretched 95x sales multiple – and historical patterns suggest stocks entering public markets with extreme multiples face intense valuation compression in the months that follow, regardless of the underlying business quality.

Crucially, Morningstar has already pegged SpaceX’s “fair value” at $780 billion, less than half the asking price.

The case for owning SPCX shares via Vanguard ETF

Investing in SpaceX shares through a broad passive vehicle such as the VOO fund (Vanguard) provides an institutional-grade layer of risk mitigation.

Given the company’s remarkable $1.77 trillion implied market cap, a successful Nasdaq debut will fast-track SPCX's inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

By purchasing the ETF, investors automatically capture the “explosive upside” of the company’s commercial satellite dominance and newly integrated xAI infrastructure.

Importantly, this exposure is safely packaged alongside 500 of America’s most stable, incredibly profitable firms.

This structural buffer dilutes the extreme volatility of a 95x sales ratio and cushions retail portfolios against potential valuation compression, all while eliminating the single-stock operational risks tied to Musk’s aggressive capital expenditures.

Portfolio diversification in a rapidly shifting market

SpaceX’s imminent listing reshapes the calculus for long-term portfolio construction.

More than $30 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and FTSE Russell indexes – meaning index inclusion will force enormous capital flows into SPCX over time, supporting its price floor in ways unavailable to individual stocks outside an index.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s debut will make it the 7th largest company in the US by market cap, above Tesla’s current $1.6 trillion, instantly reshaping the composition of growth-oriented benchmarks.

As commercial aerospace, satellite connectivity, and AI infrastructure converge in the SPCX business model, exposure to these secular trends through a diversified index vehicle like VOO captures the upside while distributing the considerable downside risk.

For most retail investors, that tradeoff – disciplined, diversified, and structurally sound – is worth far more than the gamble of a first-day trade.

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