Polymarket Cuts US-Iran Ceasefire Odds as Fresh Strike Risks Rattle Crypto Markets
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Polymarket's prediction market has cut the probability of a two-week US‑Iran ceasefire before August 31 to about 51%–52%, down roughly three percentage points over the past week as traders price renewed strike risks. More than $2.5 million has flowed into the contract as the platform's 14‑day no‑strike settlement condition and fresh military risks are unsettling crypto and other risk‑sensitive markets.
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- Polymarket odds fell to 51%–52% as traders questioned a full 14-day pause before August 31.
- Over $2.5 million has entered the contract as traders price rising risks of renewed strikes.
- Polymarket requires 14 straight days without a qualifying U.S. strike for a “Yes” outcome.
Polymarket has lowered the probability of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire before August 31 to roughly 51%–52%. The contract has fallen about three percentage points over the past week as traders reassess the durability of any pause in military action.
According to reports, more than $2.5 million has entered the market, reflecting strong attention to the conflict’s diplomatic and economic consequences. The decline also comes as fresh strike risks unsettle the crypto market and other risk-sensitive assets.
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