Betting Markets Signal Rising Uncertainty Around Iran’s Supreme Leader

• Polymarket volume hit $4.7M in four days as traders reassessed near-term risk around Iran’s leadership.
• Odds of Khamenei leaving office by the end of 2026 jumped to 56%, marking a sharp repricing in longer-dated markets.
• Widespread protests and fresh U.S. warnings coincided with rising volatility across Iran-focused bets.

Trading activity on a high-profile political contract has surged on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, highlighting renewed attention on Iran’s leadership amid domestic unrest and international pressure. Just four days after its launch, the contract asking whether Iran’s Supreme Leader will be removed by January 31 reached a volume of over $5.5 million, placing it among the platform’s most active markets.

On Thursday, a trader identified as Chungguskhan executed trades and currently holds 254,762.6 “No” shares. The co…

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