Mark Carney recently secured the Liberal Party’s leadership contest to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s 24th prime minister, raising his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

Polymarket reported that Carney’s odds of winning the next federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, had increased by 23% up to 49% from 26% last month. On the other hand, the odds of the current leader of the official opposition and the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, had decreased by 21% from 72% in February to 51%.

Carney’s expertise in business qualifies him to navigate Canada’s economic challenges 

Recently, Carney was elected leader of the Liberal Party, replacing Justin Trudeau, during ongoing historical tension and growing fears of a trade war with the U.S. under Trump’s administration. This is his first time getting involved in Canadian politics at the highest level, and a federal election is coming.

On Sunday, after securing 85.9% of the vote on the first ballot, he said, “I will work day and night with one purpose, which is to build a stronger Canada for everyone.”

Concerning the U.S.-Canada trade war, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada’s imports, potentially sparking a trade war. Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on ‘Electricity’ coming into the United States, Trump instructed his Secretary of Commerce to add an additional 25% tariff, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the United States from Canada, one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world.

Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, threatened to shut off the US electricity supply entirely. Mark Carney said he would continue to pressure America in response to Trump’s tariff actions.

“My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade,” he said in a post on X. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that Trump has yet to speak with Carney but that “his phone is always open to leaders who wish to speak with him.”

Following these developments, Canadians preferred Carney over Poilievre due to his business expertise and being a former central banker. Poilievre’s support for Bitcoin and ownership of a Canadian-issued Bitcoin ETF had not been a major focus of the Canadian campaign.

The Canadian federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, could be called sooner

The next federal election is scheduled for 20 October 2025. However, it might occur earlier due to certain circumstances, including when the government general accepts the prime minister’s resignation after the government is defeated in a confidence vote in parliament or when it accepts his advice to dissolve the government.

Pierre Poilievre and the leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, have already declared they will call for a vote of no confidence after parliament resumes.

With Carney’s record still fresh and tensions with the U.S. rising, the next election—whenever it happens—will be a test of whether his economic acumen and aspirations for Canada can earn him a long-term mandate.

At the same time, Poilievre and Singh’s pressure for an early election indicates the opposition believes it has a window of opportunity to challenge Carney before he settles into the role.

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Ethereum (ETH) has been on a slow and steady upward trajectory, inching closer to a crucial technical indicator: the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This level is more than just a line on a chart—it’s a key battleground for bulls and bears, often dictating the next major move. As ETH approaches this critical resistance, speculations on whether this could catalyze a sustained rally or a stumbling block that triggers a pullback arise.

The 100-day SMA is a widely followed indicator that reflects the medium-term trend, and its significance cannot be overstated. For Ethereum, breaking above this level could reignite bullish sentiment, paving the way for higher price targets. On the flip side, a rejection might lead to further consolidation or even a retest of lower support levels

Ethereum Price Struggles: Can Bulls Gain Momentum?

Ethereum has been facing a tough battle as it slowly climbs toward the 100-day SMA. Despite attempts at recovery, the price has struggled to gain strong upside movement, with resistance levels capping its moves. Buyers have shown interest at key support zones, preventing further declines, but a lack of sustained volume and conviction has kept ETH from breaking higher.

The MACD indicator hints at a potential momentum shift in Ethereum’s price action. While the MACD and signal lines have crossed and are approaching the zero line, a confirmed bullish crossover is still lacking. Additionally, the narrowing histogram suggests a transition from bearish to neutral or bullish, but further confirmation is needed for a sustained upward move.

For Ethereum to sustain a bullish move, the MACD line and signal line need to rise above average, accompanied by expanding histogram bars in the positive zone. If this occurs, it could strengthen upward momentum. However, failure to achieve a breakout leaves Ethereum vulnerable to consolidation or a downside move.

What A Successful Breakout Means

A breakout above the 100-day SMA would serve as a strong bullish confirmation for Ethereum, signaling renewed upward momentum and shifting market sentiment in favor of buyers. This move would suggest that Ethereum has overcome a key technical barrier, potentially attracting more investors and traders looking to capitalize on the uptrend.

Ethereum could set its sights on the $2,160 resistance level if the breakout is sustained with increased volume and strong follow-through. A successful push above this level may increase the likelihood of more price appreciation toward other resistance levels, such as $2,858 and $3,360. 

However, if Ethereum fails to achieve a breakout above the key resistance level, it could face renewed selling pressure, leading to a fresh decline toward the $1,523 support zone. This level has historically acted as a key demand area, where buyers might attempt to prevent further downside.