Prominent Cryptocurrency founder and analyst Ki Young Ju believes the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended. Referencing on-chain market metrics, Ju explains his reasoning, citing key occurrences in previous weeks.

Ju asserts that if an increase in the realized cap, a metric that tracks the flow of funds into Bitcoin through wallet movements, does not trigger a price surge for Bitcoin, the bears might have taken over. “A classic bearish signal,” he writes.

On the flipside, a bullish signal can be observed when stagnation in Realized Cap does not interfere with the upsurge in market capitalization. “It suggests that even a small amount of new capital is driving prices higher.” Ju asstered. “Right now, we’re seeing the former—capital is entering the market, but prices aren’t responding. That’s typical of a bear market.” he noted. 

According to the analyst, a decrease in selling pressure could allow for small Bitcoin purchases to trigger a price pump, and by extension, an even higher pump in market cap value. 

The analyst points to MicroStrategy to validate the aforementioned observation, noting that the firm’s move to purchase Bitcoin from the proceeds obtained from the issuing of convertible bonds resulted in a spike in the value of the firm’s fiat holding, which was particularly higher than the capital deployed. 

His assertion suggests that small capitals are price drivers only in a bull market, while large capitals failing to trigger a price spike signals a bear market in play. Notably, the current on-chain data points to the latter.

While selling pressure could be contained at any time, a short-term rally seems unlikely, as historical data shows that reversals typically commence after a six-month period.

During this report, Bitcoin, having failed to sustain momentum above the $80,000 price level, is trading at $78,365 after losing more than 5% of its gains.

Prominent Cryptocurrency founder and analyst Ki Young Ju believes the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended. Referencing on-chain market metrics, Ju explains his reasoning, citing key occurrences in previous weeks.

Ju asserts that if an increase in the realized cap, a metric that tracks the flow of funds into Bitcoin through wallet movements, does not trigger a price surge for Bitcoin, the bears might have taken over. “A classic bearish signal,” he writes.

On the flipside, a bullish signal can be observed when stagnation in Realized Cap does not interfere with the upsurge in market capitalization. “It suggests that even a small amount of new capital is driving prices higher.” Ju asstered. “Right now, we’re seeing the former—capital is entering the market, but prices aren’t responding. That’s typical of a bear market.” he noted. 

According to the analyst, a decrease in selling pressure could allow for small Bitcoin purchases to trigger a price pump, and by extension, an even higher pump in market cap value. 

The analyst points to MicroStrategy to validate the aforementioned observation, noting that the firm’s move to purchase Bitcoin from the proceeds obtained from the issuing of convertible bonds resulted in a spike in the value of the firm’s fiat holding, which was particularly higher than the capital deployed. 

His assertion suggests that small capitals are price drivers only in a bull market, while large capitals failing to trigger a price spike signals a bear market in play. Notably, the current on-chain data points to the latter.

While selling pressure could be contained at any time, a short-term rally seems unlikely, as historical data shows that reversals typically commence after a six-month period.

During this report, Bitcoin, having failed to sustain momentum above the $80,000 price level, is trading at $78,365 after losing more than 5% of its gains.