Binance US Prepares CFTC License Bid for U.S. Prediction Markets

• Binance US plans to seek CFTC designation as a contract market to launch a U.S.-based prediction market platform.
• If approved, the expansion would put Binance US in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket.

Binance US CEO Steven Gregory announced at the RareEvo conference in Las Vegas that the exchange plans to apply for a Commodity Futures Trading Commission Designated Contract Market license next month. 

If approved, the license would allow Binance US to launch its own regulated prediction market in the United States, putting it in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant players in the space.

The move is part of a broader comeback strategy for Binance US, which has been rebuilding its position in the U.S. market following the SEC lawsuit dismissal against Binance, its U.S. entity, and former CEO Changpeng Zhao over a year ago. 

The strategy centres on lower trading fees, expanding into perpetuals, and now pushing into prediction markets as a new revenue vertical.

Moreover, a Designated Contract Market designation allows an exchange to legally trade futures or options contracts based on underlying commodities, indexes, or financial instruments, which covers the event-based contracts that prediction markets are built on.

Companies applying for DCM status must comply with 23 core principles set by the CFTC, covering system safeguards, recordkeeping, and conflict of interest prevention. This is a structural regulatory undertaking that requires a full compliance framework before the first contract ever trades.

Furthermore, the CFTC records show no pending DCM application from Binance US. The filing has not happened yet. But the timeline is clear, with August as the target.

The Competitive Pressure Within the Market

Kalshi secured its FCM license earlier this year and launched perpetual futures that surpassed $5.5 billion in volume within two weeks. Polymarket filed its own FCM application in July and recorded $4 billion in weekly notional trading volume in June. 

Binance US entering this market with its existing user base and brand recognition could significantly alter the competitive dynamics. For users, more regulated competition typically means better products, tighter pricing, and broader market access. 

For Kalshi and Polymarket, a licensed Binance US prediction market is the most serious institutional challenge either platform has faced. A successful DCM application would expand the scope of what U.S. crypto exchanges can legally offer, and signal that prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream financial infrastructure faster than expected.

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