Silver price forecast: bulls face $78 test as rebound loses momentum

Silver’s two-day advance lost momentum on Friday, with the metal slipping in the Asian session and remaining below key resistance levels on the four-hour chart.

The pullback has kept price action capped beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline from the monthly high.

That level sits near $76.00 and is now acting as the first major barrier for buyers attempting to regain control.

The failure to build on the recent rebound suggests sellers remain active on rallies.

For now, the broader near-term structure still favours caution unless silver can break cleanly above the resistance cluster that has limited the recovery.

Near-term resistance and what needs to break

The first hurdle for bulls is the $76.00 area, which marks the 23.6% retracement of the recent decline.

A sustained move above that zone would be needed to show that the rebound has stronger momentum.

Even then, buyers face another important test at the 100-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart, currently near $77.98.

As long as silver trades below that moving average, the short-term trend remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

Further upside levels are seen around $79.39 and $81.30.

A stronger recovery could then bring $83.21 and $85.92 into focus, though those levels remain distant while price action is still struggling below the initial resistance band.

The relative strength index is sitting just below the midline, suggesting momentum is not yet firmly in bullish territory.

The MACD has turned positive on the four-hour chart, but that signal has so far not been strong enough to confirm a decisive reversal.

Key support to watch

On the downside, $73.21 remains the key support level. This area aligns with the previous low and a Fibonacci level, making it an important line in the sand for near-term traders.

A break below $73.21 would weaken the recovery attempt and could reopen the path towards fresh lows.

Such a move would likely confirm that the two-day advance was corrective rather than the start of a broader bullish reversal.

If silver manages to hold above $73.21, the market may continue to consolidate between support and the resistance zone near $76.00 to $77.98.

A breakout on either side of that range could set the next directional move.

What is driving silver right now

Silver continues to trade as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity.

Like gold, it is often used by investors as a store of value and as a hedge during periods of inflation, currency weakness or market stress.

At the same time, silver’s industrial role means demand from sectors such as electronics, solar energy and jewellery remains important.

Consumption trends in major markets, including India, can influence sentiment and price expectations.

The US dollar also remains a central driver.

Because silver is priced in dollars, a stronger US dollar can weigh on demand from non-US buyers, while a weaker dollar can support prices.

Interest-rate expectations are another key factor.

Higher rates can reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver, while expectations of lower rates may improve investor demand.

For now, the technical picture shows a market trying to recover but still failing to clear important resistance.

Until silver moves above the 4H 100-EMA and the nearby Fibonacci levels, sellers may continue to defend rallies.

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