Boeing stock analysis and earnings preview: will it pop or crash?

Boeing stock price will be highly volatile this week as the company publishes its financial results, which will provide more information about its ongoing turnaround. BA ended last week at $38, down slightly from the year-to-date high of $230. It remains 20% above the year-to-date low of $187.

Boeing to publish earnings on April 22

BA, the biggest aircraft manufacturer in the United States, will be in the spotlight this week as it publishes its earnings, which will provide more color about its business.

These results come a few days after the management announced its first-quarter delivery numbers. It delivered 143 commercial aircraft, with most of them being 737s. It delivered 15 787s, 8 777s, and 6 757s. 

At the same time, the defense, space, and security programs business delivered 30 products during the quarter. These numbers were much higher than those it delivered last year when it was limited on the number of jets to manufacture a week.

As a result, Wall Street analysts believe that the company’s revenue growth continued in the first quarter. The consensus is that the company made $22 billion, up by 12% from the same period last year. 

Analysts also expect that its forward guidance will show that its second quarter revenue will be $24 billion, up by 5.75%, while the annual figure will be $97 billion. Analysts also see the company making over $111 billion next year as the backlog continues rising.

These estimates are achievable, especially when the company’s planes demonstrate their safety, which the management is focusing on.

The upcoming results will provide more color on the impact of the ongoing Iran war on its business. Its main impact will be on the rising costs of raw materials, especially aluminum, which soared as the war started.

Potential catalysts for BA stock 

Another major potential catalyst for the Boeing stock price is that President Donald Trump is planning to visit Beijing in May this year, and its CEO is expected to be part of the delegation. Media reports suggest that the company may receive orders worth over $80 billion.

This will be a crucial order as the company has not had Chinese customers for over eight years, a situation that emerged from the last trade war. It will also be important as it will help the company bridge the backlog gap with Airbus.

Another potential catalyst that may boost the stock is a deal between the US and Iran. A deal that unfreezes Iran’s cash will lead to hundreds of Boeing orders as we observed after the JCPOA deal was signed.

Boeing stock price forecast: technical analysis

BA stock price chart | Source: TradingView 

The three-day chart shows that the Boeing share price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $187 in March to the current $220.

The stock has formed what looks like an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis.

It has remained above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and the ascending trending that links the lowest swings since April last year.

However, the stock has formed a shooting star candlestick pattern, which is made up of a small body and a long upper shadow.

This pattern points to a brief pullback, potentially to the key support at $200 and then an eventual rebound. A complete recovery will be confirmed if the stock jumps above the key resistance level at $254. A move above that price will point to more gains to $300.

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