However, it has shown consistent upward momentum since then, successfully breaking above the $82 mark late last week, though it has slightly retreated from that point.

“But its daily MACD looks encouraging from a bullish perspective. It has started to curl up once again as it pushes up from the neutral line,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

But, as with gold, so much depends on the US dollar. Higher energy costs and sticky inflation are contributing to a stronger US dollar, and this could create a difficult backdrop for non-yielding assets, particularly if central banks maintain restrictive monetary policy settings for longer.
David Morrison
Senior market analyst at Trade Nation

Meanwhile, gold on COMEX ticked up slightly as investors remained cautious about a peace deal between the US and Iran.

Market attention will be concentrated on upcoming inflation data, specifically the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are escalating after President Donald Trump swiftly rejected Iran's counter-proposal to a US peace plan.

This swift rejection has heightened worries that the ten-week-old conflict will persist, continuing to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and driving oil prices upward.

Global brokerages have lowered expectations for two US interest rate cuts this year; forecasts now range from some easing to no cuts in 2026 due to inflation and cautious policymakers.

Gold, despite its safe-haven appeal, typically falls under pressure as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

At the time of writing, the price of gold was at $4,741.25 per ounce, up 0.2%.

Oil recovers

Oil prices surged more than $2 on Monday, following US President Donald Trump's declaration that Iran's reaction to a US peace plan was "unacceptable."

Consequently, the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, with no immediate resolution to the conflict apparent.

The Brent crude contract was last at $104.19 per barrel, up 2.9%, while WTI was at $98.17 a barrel, also up 2.9% from the previous close.

Oil benchmarks fell 6% last week, driven by optimism that the 10-week conflict might soon conclude, potentially unblocking oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

This followed Washington's suggestion to restart talks.

On Sunday, Iran responded with a proposal centered on a complete cessation of hostilities, including in areas where US ally Israel is engaged in fighting with Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.

Tehran's demands included war reparations, recognition of its sovereignty over the strait, an end to the US naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, the lifting of sanctions, and the removal of the ban on Iranian oil sales.

However, Trump swiftly rejected Tehran's proposal, labeling it "totally unacceptable" on social media within hours of the offer.

According to US officials, Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday to discuss topics, including Iran, with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“The war is now in its 11th week which means that the world must adjust to oil prices which will be higher for longer,” Morrison said.

While there’s still a steep backwardation in oil prices, suggesting that crude should pull back significantly later this year, the war has now lasted longer than many analysts were predicting a month ago.
David Morrison
Senior market analyst at Trade Nation

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