India–China flight restart amid diplomatic thaw sets stage for power shift in the skies
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Air India will resume direct flights to China in February 2026, nearly six years after services were suspended, the airline said on Monday, marking a significant step in the gradual normalisation of ties between Asia’s two largest economies.
The carrier plans to restore the Delhi–Shanghai route first, followed by a new Mumbai–Shanghai service later in the year, subject to regulatory approvals.
The announcement comes weeks after IndiGo launched flights from Kolkata to Guangzhou, ending a five-year absence for Indian carriers on China routes and signalling tentative but steady diplomatic de-escalation.
“The resumption of our Delhi–Shanghai services is more than a route launch. It is a bridge between two great, ancient civilisations and modern economic powerhouses,” Air India CEO and Managing Director Campbell Wilson said.
According to the airline, renewed air links are expected to deepen cooperation in pharmaceuticals, technology, education and other sectors.
Diplomatic thaw unfolds as Delhi and Beijing recalibrate ties amid straining bonds with the US
The revival follows a rare high-level visit to China by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year, his first in seven years, to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
During talks, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping described India and China as “development partners, not rivals” and discussed ways to stabilise trade ties amid global tariff volatility.
Direct flights were halted in early 2020 due to the pandemic, which coincided with deadly clashes between the soldiers of the two countries on the Himalayan frontier that froze diplomatic momentum.
The slow warming of relations now unfolds against the backdrop of rising foreign policy tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump.
Delhi’s relationship with Washington has grown strained.
The US has imposed 50% punitive tariffs on Indian goods, and Trump’s advisers have accused New Delhi of indirectly aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine through discounted oil purchases — allegations India rejects.
The two countries are currently discussing a trade deal that might bring some relief to India.
China, meanwhile, is blamed for directly supplying weapons to Russia.
In this environment, analysts argue the reopening of air corridors between India and China carries strategic undertones.
“The reopening of the air corridor is arguably less about reconciliation between Delhi and Beijing than about diversification away from US-led multilateralism as well as alleviating pressure from Washington,” said the Lowy Institute.
“In this light, it is telling that the reopening of air corridors between India and China was announced just weeks after Air India’s abrupt suspension of its own nonstop service from Delhi to Washington DC.”
Last month, Chinese and Indian troops posted along the Himalayan frontier exchanged boxes of sweets during the Diwali festival — a small but symbolic gesture of goodwill, according to Chinese embassy spokesperson Yu Jing.
Economic factors fuelling the resumption of links
At the same time, economic logic also drives the resumption of links.
China continues to supply crucial machinery and electronics to India, while Indian pharmaceutical, IT and manufacturing firms depend on predictable access to the Chinese market.
Aviation data reinforces this trend.
OAG figures show around 572,000 passengers travelled between the two countries in the past year via intermediate hubs.
Though still far below the 2019 peak of 1.93 million indirect travellers, the number highlights the scale of potential demand once direct routes resume.
Nonstop flights, analysts say, will reduce travel times, cut costs and ease congestion at Asian hubs.
China Eastern Airlines also restarted its Shanghai–Delhi service on November 9 with a 95% load factor, becoming the first mainland Chinese airline this year to return to the Indian market.
The flight’s strong uptake underscored robust latent demand among business travellers, students and professionals who have relied on indirect routes via Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong for nearly five years.
China Southern, which had the largest market share on India–China routes in 2019, is expected to resume twice-daily Delhi services, according to aviation journalist Paul Hartley, who added that more operators from both countries can be expected to join the fray.
Why analysts expect a rebalancing of power in the skies between China and India
However, New Delhi remains cautious about returning to pre-pandemic patterns.
Before 2020, Chinese state-owned carriers dominated India–China aviation, accounting for 72–80% of the direct market — a gap partly caused by India’s former “Five-and-Twenty” rule restricting early international expansion.
Analysts say Modi will also seek to diversify routes beyond Delhi to distribute economic opportunities more evenly and to avoid concentration of capacity.
India’s rapid airport expansion — new terminals in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and other cities — is designed to handle a booming domestic and international market.
The power balance in the skies is also shifting. IndiGo is more than twice its pre-pandemic size and is aggressively expanding abroad.
“What is certain is that the balance of power between Indian and Chinese carriers will shift from what it was. When there were last nonstop flights between the two countries, Chinese carriers dominated the market. They generally utilised larger aircraft and operated at greater frequencies, resulting in a share of more than 80% of the 125,000 available seats per month,” Hartley said.
With nearly 950 aircraft on order, it is positioned to offer extensive connectivity between the world’s two most populous countries.
Air India, now privately owned and recapitalised, is simultaneously building long-haul strength with the ability to serve both major and secondary cities.
Indian airlines now have the fleet, capital, and strategic backing to mount a more competitive presence.
The gradual reopening of India–China skies, therefore, marks both a diplomatic thaw and a recalibration of economic and aviation strategy.
While political mistrust remains, the restoration of flights represents a pragmatic acknowledgement of mutual dependence — and a cautious step forward in a complex regional landscape.
The post India–China flight restart amid diplomatic thaw sets stage for power shift in the skies appeared first on Invezz
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India–China flight restart amid diplomatic thaw sets stage for power shift in the skies
Share:
Air India will resume direct flights to China in February 2026, nearly six years after services were suspended, the airline said on Monday, marking a significant step in the gradual normalisation of ties between Asia’s two largest economies.
The carrier plans to restore the Delhi–Shanghai route first, followed by a new Mumbai–Shanghai service later in the year, subject to regulatory approvals.
The announcement comes weeks after IndiGo launched flights from Kolkata to Guangzhou, ending a five-year absence for Indian carriers on China routes and signalling tentative but steady diplomatic de-escalation.
“The resumption of our Delhi–Shanghai services is more than a route launch. It is a bridge between two great, ancient civilisations and modern economic powerhouses,” Air India CEO and Managing Director Campbell Wilson said.
According to the airline, renewed air links are expected to deepen cooperation in pharmaceuticals, technology, education and other sectors.
Diplomatic thaw unfolds as Delhi and Beijing recalibrate ties amid straining bonds with the US
The revival follows a rare high-level visit to China by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year, his first in seven years, to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
During talks, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping described India and China as “development partners, not rivals” and discussed ways to stabilise trade ties amid global tariff volatility.
Direct flights were halted in early 2020 due to the pandemic, which coincided with deadly clashes between the soldiers of the two countries on the Himalayan frontier that froze diplomatic momentum.
The slow warming of relations now unfolds against the backdrop of rising foreign policy tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump.
Delhi’s relationship with Washington has grown strained.
The US has imposed 50% punitive tariffs on Indian goods, and Trump’s advisers have accused New Delhi of indirectly aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine through discounted oil purchases — allegations India rejects.
The two countries are currently discussing a trade deal that might bring some relief to India.
China, meanwhile, is blamed for directly supplying weapons to Russia.
In this environment, analysts argue the reopening of air corridors between India and China carries strategic undertones.
“The reopening of the air corridor is arguably less about reconciliation between Delhi and Beijing than about diversification away from US-led multilateralism as well as alleviating pressure from Washington,” said the Lowy Institute.
“In this light, it is telling that the reopening of air corridors between India and China was announced just weeks after Air India’s abrupt suspension of its own nonstop service from Delhi to Washington DC.”
Last month, Chinese and Indian troops posted along the Himalayan frontier exchanged boxes of sweets during the Diwali festival — a small but symbolic gesture of goodwill, according to Chinese embassy spokesperson Yu Jing.
Economic factors fuelling the resumption of links
At the same time, economic logic also drives the resumption of links.
China continues to supply crucial machinery and electronics to India, while Indian pharmaceutical, IT and manufacturing firms depend on predictable access to the Chinese market.
Aviation data reinforces this trend.
OAG figures show around 572,000 passengers travelled between the two countries in the past year via intermediate hubs.
Though still far below the 2019 peak of 1.93 million indirect travellers, the number highlights the scale of potential demand once direct routes resume.
Nonstop flights, analysts say, will reduce travel times, cut costs and ease congestion at Asian hubs.
China Eastern Airlines also restarted its Shanghai–Delhi service on November 9 with a 95% load factor, becoming the first mainland Chinese airline this year to return to the Indian market.
The flight’s strong uptake underscored robust latent demand among business travellers, students and professionals who have relied on indirect routes via Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong for nearly five years.
China Southern, which had the largest market share on India–China routes in 2019, is expected to resume twice-daily Delhi services, according to aviation journalist Paul Hartley, who added that more operators from both countries can be expected to join the fray.
Why analysts expect a rebalancing of power in the skies between China and India
However, New Delhi remains cautious about returning to pre-pandemic patterns.
Before 2020, Chinese state-owned carriers dominated India–China aviation, accounting for 72–80% of the direct market — a gap partly caused by India’s former “Five-and-Twenty” rule restricting early international expansion.
Analysts say Modi will also seek to diversify routes beyond Delhi to distribute economic opportunities more evenly and to avoid concentration of capacity.
India’s rapid airport expansion — new terminals in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and other cities — is designed to handle a booming domestic and international market.
The power balance in the skies is also shifting. IndiGo is more than twice its pre-pandemic size and is aggressively expanding abroad.
“What is certain is that the balance of power between Indian and Chinese carriers will shift from what it was. When there were last nonstop flights between the two countries, Chinese carriers dominated the market. They generally utilised larger aircraft and operated at greater frequencies, resulting in a share of more than 80% of the 125,000 available seats per month,” Hartley said.
With nearly 950 aircraft on order, it is positioned to offer extensive connectivity between the world’s two most populous countries.
Air India, now privately owned and recapitalised, is simultaneously building long-haul strength with the ability to serve both major and secondary cities.
Indian airlines now have the fleet, capital, and strategic backing to mount a more competitive presence.
The gradual reopening of India–China skies, therefore, marks both a diplomatic thaw and a recalibration of economic and aviation strategy.
While political mistrust remains, the restoration of flights represents a pragmatic acknowledgement of mutual dependence — and a cautious step forward in a complex regional landscape.
The post India–China flight restart amid diplomatic thaw sets stage for power shift in the skies appeared first on Invezz
In This News
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In This News
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US gas demand poised to jump 19% by 2030, fueled by power sector and exports