Crude Oil Prices: Rise 1% as WTI Tops $81, Brent Nears $85 on Hormuz Risks

Crude oil prices recovered Tuesday after a steep selloff as uncertainty over U.S.-Iran diplomacy restored part of the market’s Middle East risk premium. Brent crude approached $85, while WTI moved above $81 as traders assessed tanker security, restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic and the possibility of renewed escalation.

Front-month Brent futures rose $1.12, or 1.3%, to $84.89 a barrel by 3:55 a.m. GMT on Aug. 4. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 77 cents, or 1%, to $81.11 after both benchmarks suffered heavy losses Monday.

Monday’s decline followed U.S. claims that talks with Iran could reduce tensions and improve access through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied that negotiations with Washington were underway, however, leaving traders without clear evidence of a lasting diplomatic breakthrough.

The uncertainty intensified after a cargo ship reported being struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman. The incident reinforced concerns that shipping conditions remain dangerous even as some crude exports recover.

Hormuz Flows Recover but Remain Disrupted

The supplied TankerMap chart shows a sharp decline in daily cargo tonnage through the Strait of Hormuz since February, followed by uneven recoveries and another drop during July. A small late-July increase suggests traffic has not stopped completely, but flows remain unstable.

Strait of Hormuz Tanker Flow Chart. Source: TankerMap

Kpler reported July 23 that daily crossings had fallen about 70% after fighting resumed, dropping from approximately 45 vessels per day during a temporary truce to about 13. Reuters later reported that net crude and refined-product exports reached 4.2 million barrels per day in the week ended July 31, up from 3.2 million the previous week. Together, the figures point to a partial recovery rather than normal operating conditions.

WTI Holds Near an Important Technical Area

The supplied WTI daily chart places immediate support around $78.46, followed by the rising 200-day moving average near $75.77. The first resistance sits near $84.37, where price would also confront a descending trendline.

WTI Daily Price Chart. Source: ian cooper (@icooperTrades) on X

A close above $84.37 would improve the short-term structure and expose approximately $90.90. Conversely, a sustained break below $78.46 could shift attention toward $75.77, while a deeper selloff could bring the $67.29 area back into view.

Part-Time Trader’s longer-term chart presents a more bearish initial scenario, with WTI potentially revisiting $65 before beginning a larger recovery. That projection remains market commentary rather than a confirmed price path.

Futures Curve Signals Near-Term Supply Pressure

The supplied futures-curve graph slopes downward from the front contracts into later maturities. This structure, known as backwardation, means near-term oil costs more than future delivery and can indicate strong immediate demand or concern about available supply.

However, far-dated contracts often trade less actively, so the curve should not be read as a firm prediction that oil will fall toward the displayed long-term prices.

OPEC+ supply remains another factor. Seven members approved a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment for August while retaining the option to pause or reverse future increases if market conditions change.