Michael Burry warns that Wall Street’s record 182-session streak without a broad selloff — the longest in at least three decades per BTIG — is a red flag as gains are narrowly driven by a handful of AI mega-caps such as Nvidia and Micron, which he has been shorting and has flagged since November 2025. He urges avoiding leverage because narrow leadership can unwind into broad selling and systemic spillovers for other risk markets, including crypto, DeFi and CEX liquidity, noting recent hedge fund losses and the sale of Situational Awareness’s public book to Citadel after AI-related losses.

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In Brief

Michael Burry warns Wall Street's longest calm streak in decades signals trouble.
BTIG data shows 182 sessions without a broad Wall Street selloff.
Burry says avoiding leverage matters most as the market cycle plays out.

Michael Burry is warning that Wall Street’s longest calm streak in three decades is a red flag. The calm has held even as a small group of AI-linked mega-caps drives most of the market’s gains.

Burry predicted the 2008 housing collapse and is a known skeptic who often sees his calls come true. He says this streak echoes warnings he has made since November 2025.

A Record Streak Without a Selloff

BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky tracks a specific signal. He measures days when at least 80% of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) volume comes from falling stocks.

Wednesday marked the 182nd straight session without one of those days. Historically, this is the longest streak in at least three decades, and nearly 50 sessions longer than the previous record.

Krinsky notes that every year in the past three decades has recorded at least five of these sessions. A full 2026 without one would mark a first.

“That sort of technical factor on its own is easy to ignore. However, I have been writing about fundamental reasons for something like this to happen since November of 2025.”

Why the Calm Might Be an Illusion

In contrast to broad-based rallies, a handful of AI stocks now drive most index gains. Burry has flagged concerns about Nvidia (NVDA), Micron Technology (MU), Caterpillar (CAT), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), and Tesla (TSLA).

Despite being a huge player in the markets, Nvidia has traded quite flat YTD. Image Source: Trading View

He holds bearish positions against several of these companies, including Nvidia and Micron. Passive index funds also carry heavy weightings in these same AI names, amplifying the swings.

Burry has made similar warnings before. He compares today’s setup to his earlier 1987 crash warning and the dot-com peak. In both cases, narrow leadership eventually gave way to broader selling.

The Leverage Warning from Burry

However, Burry’s core message is not about timing the turn. It is about surviving it.

“The trick is to avoid stepping into someone else’s folly along the way. Avoid the leverage, and one is more likely to avoid the folly.” Burry said.

Large market cycles can take months or years to unwind, Burry says. Therefore, leverage becomes the real danger for investors waiting it out.

Situational Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold its public stock portfolio to Citadel last month. Meanwhile, steep losses on chip and data center stocks, including SK Hynix, forced the move.

Whether the calm breaks before the mega-caps do is the question Burry is betting on.

Read the article at BeInCrypto