Brent crude oil price analysis: The market needs more than just ‘what if’’

Crude oil price has been rather bullish in recent sessions as the market digests the geopolitical tensions in Iran. However, it is yet to transition into the bullish market as investors await further cues on the demand/supply dynamics. 

At the time of writing, Brent futures were trading at $64.23 after pulling back from the two-and-a-half month high hit in the previous session at $66.77. At the same time, the benchmark for US crude oil prices, WTI, plunged below the crucial resistance-turn-support level of $59.65 after dropping from its highest level since 24th October at $62.37. 

Iran tensions aren’t enough to sustain crude oil price rallying

Crude oil price has pulled back from the October high hit on Wednesday as the fundamentals fail to sustain the rally past its months-long bearish channel. On the one hand, the geopolitical tensions in Iran have bolstered Brent oil price past the bearish channel that has largely defined its movements since August 2025. 

However, the bulls lacked enough momentum to sustain the 5-day rallying that saw the asset reach its highest level since late October on Wednesday. This is mainly because the woes are built around ‘what ifs’. 

Investors are concerned about the possible US military intervention in the major oil producer and how that would impact global supplies. However, President Trump appears to have cooled on the threats. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, the US President stated, “we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It’s stopped. It’s stopping and there’s no need for executions”.

 Besides, even with further sanctions on the Middle East country, its oil would eventually be bought by China and Russia. Similarly, the situation in Venezuela is not expected to have a major impact on the crude oil market. 

Brent crude oil price technical analysis

Brent crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView

Crude oil price remains under selling pressure even after rallying past the bearish channel that has shaped its movement since August 2025. Late last week, the benchmark for global oil prices, Brent futures, broke the one-month resistance level of $62.75. 

The gains were extended earlier this week as Brent oil rose past $64 for the first time since late November. Indeed, it hit a two-and-a-half month high at $66.77 on Wednesday amid concerns over a possible attack on Iran. 

While the easing of those concerns has yielded a pullback, Brent crude oil price is hovering near $64 as it remains above the short-term 25-day EMA and the medium-term 50-day MA.

In the short term, I expect the support level of $62.75, which is along the 50-day EMA, to remain strong. Currently, the bulls are keen on defending the support at $64. As such, it may trade within a rather tight range with $66.77 being a resistance zone worth watching. However, this cautiously bullish thesis will be invalidated by a pullback past the short-term 25-day EMA at $62.54. If that happens, the bears will have a chance to pull prices back to the bearish channel.   

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