Polymarket’s World Cup winner market drew about 194,000 unique crypto addresses but roughly two-thirds (≈130,000) finished in the red, with 114,126 losing under $100 and 43 wallets losing over $100,000 for a combined $15 million, while 54 addresses profited more than $100,000 totaling $22.3 million and one operator (asparagus2012) ran seven accounts to net over $7.4 million after Spain beat Argentina 1-0 on July 19. The results highlight concentration risk in prediction markets and uneven DeFi adoption, and open interest has since cooled across Polymarket and Kalshi with analysts expecting muted activity until the NFL season in September.

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In Brief

Two-thirds of the 194,000 addresses in Polymarket's World Cup market lost money.
Just 54 wallets profited over $100,000, banking a combined $22.3 million.
One trader ran 7 accounts to net over $7.4 million, per Arkham.

Polymarket’s World Cup winner market attracted more than 194,000 unique addresses, but roughly two-thirds finished underwater.

The World Cup closed with Spain beating Argentina 1-0 in the July 19 final. Data compiled by an analyst shows the payouts concentrated among a handful of large winners. Meanwhile, most participants recorded only marginal gains or losses.

Where the World Cup Profits Went on Polymarket

Nearly 130,000 addresses finished the market in the red, about 66.7% of all participants. Nonetheless, most of the damage stayed small.

A total of 114,126 addresses each lost under $100, with an average loss of less than $10. At the other extreme, 43 addresses lost more than $100,000, shedding a combined $15 million.

Polymarket Trader Profit and Losses in the World Cup Market. Source: Dune

The profit side mirrored that shape. Some 57,991 addresses gained under $100 each, averaging less than $5. Larger wins stayed rare across the market.

Only 54 addresses cleared more than $100,000, together banking $22.3 million. The analyst identified five wallets that each topped $1 million, including asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear, and wco26.

According to Arkham, asparagus2012 operated 7 separate accounts. The trader generated more than $7.4 million across World Cup markets and funneled the winnings into a single address.

THIS GUY USED 7 ACCOUNTS TO MAKE $7 MILLION ON THE WORLD CUP“asparagus2012” made $3.5M on the World Cup after betting almost $450K on Spain to win. But it appears that this was not his only Polymarket account. In total, asparagus2012 used 7 different accounts to make over… pic.twitter.com/h47YHdbQYw
— Arkham (@arkham) July 20, 2026

Prediction Market Activity Cools Before Another Football Season

The tournament drew traders and heavy volume to prediction markets, but activity has since cooled. Open interest across Kalshi and Polymarket has dropped as major sporting events fade from the calendar, according to Artemis data.

Bernstein analyst Ian Moore expects a quiet stretch through August before the National Football League (NFL) season starts in September.

“August is always a pretty light month for the sports books and the traditional ones. And now the prediction markets as well… You kind of have to wait until NFL season kicks off in September to get that bounce in handle,” he said.

The analyst pointed to a Week 1 slate as an early draw for the platforms. The coming weeks will test whether prediction markets can hold the audience the World Cup delivered.

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