Fitch Ratings Warn US Tariffs Could Lead to a Recession

Fitch Ratings has warned that the sweeping US tariffs could lead to a recession and lower global growth. US President Donald Trump announced tariffs affecting more than three dozen countries globally. After Liberation Day, the US stock market experienced a major crash, wiping out $2.85 trillion in a single trading session. Dow Jones crashed 1,679 points during the closing bell and dipped to more than 1,850 points at one point.

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The tariffs were imposed on both allies and foes, leading to widespread anger as the normal flow of trade was disrupted. Read here for the full list of countries that face tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. According to Fitch Ratings, the tariffs could trigger a recession and raise consumer prices across the US.

In addition, Fitch Ratings highlighted that the US tariffs could lower revenues and earnings leading to corporate losses. The development in turn would slow down growth and lead to job losses across various sectors. Only the semiconductor and pharmacy industry could remain safe as they are being negotiated separately.

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US Tariffs Increase Recession Chances: Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings increased their US recession chances from 18% to 25% as the tariffs went live on Wednesday. This is the highest rating Fitch provided in the last 115 years. “We estimate the changes will raise the overall US ETR to about 25%, which would be significantly higher than the 18% we had assumed for 2025 in the March GEO and the highest rate for more than 115 years,” Fitch said.

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The tariffs will also slowdown the economy and Fitch Ratings projected that the US will see less than 1.7% growth as recession looms. The DXY index, which tracks the performance of the US dollar shows the currency dipping to the 101.60 mark. The US dollar has plummeted close to 6.75% year-to-date and has turned bearish.