Bitcoin has faced persistent challenges in recent weeks, struggling to maintain a stable upward momentum. After recently slipping below $100,000, the cryptocurrency now hovers around the $95,000 mark, causing uncertainty among investors.

Despite these setbacks, some analysts see signs that the market’s bull cycle may still have room to run. CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D recently examined the current state of Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization, offering insights into what might lie ahead for the asset.

Bitcoin Realized Cap as a Bullish Indicator

According to Mac’s analysis, Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization—calculated by summing the value of each Bitcoin based on its last recorded transaction price—has reached an all-time high, surpassing $857 billion. This increase occurred even as Bitcoin’s price experienced a downturn.

Traditionally, a rising realized cap indicates that coins are being sold by long-term holders and absorbed by new investors. This redistribution cycle often reflects a healthy, ongoing bull market rather than the end of one.

Mac noted that the proportion of long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than six months currently stands at 39.74%, compared to 15.66% during the previous market peak. This higher percentage suggests that long-term holders remain active, and the market has yet to reach its zenith.

While the data indicates that the bull cycle continues, external factors such as trade tensions and inflation could still influence short-term corrections. However, Mac believes these macroeconomic elements won’t derail the market’s long-term upward trajectory. The analyst wrote:

The increase in realized market cap and the decrease in long-term holder ratio indicate that the market is still in a bull cycle. However, investors should also consider macroeconomic factors such as trade tensions and inflation. While these factors may lead to short-term corrections and periods of price stability, the long-term upward trend is expected to persist.

Retail Activity Shows Signs of Revival

In addition to realized cap metrics, other market indicators also suggest potential positive developments. Another CryptoQuant analyst, caueconomy, highlighted retail investor behavior as a key factor to watch.

While retail demand for Bitcoin has been muted over the past month—declining by just 2% compared to a steeper 20% drop in January—there are signs that this normalization period is ending. Historically, increases in retail activity have coincided with improved market sentiment and short-term price rallies.

If retail participation resumes, it could strengthen Bitcoin’s market structure and contribute to a broader recovery. Although Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase has tempered its recent performance, these underlying metrics provide some optimism for investors.

The data suggests that both long-term and retail participants remain engaged, setting the stage for potential growth once the market regains momentum.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum price is moving higher above the $2,650 zone. ETH might gain bullish momentum if it clears the $2,750 resistance zone.

• Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $2,620 resistance level.
• The price is trading above $2,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could start a decent upward move if it settles above $2,750 and $2,800.

Ethereum Price Eyes Steady Increase

Ethereum price remained supported above the $2,550 level, like Bitcoin. ETH formed a base and recently started a fresh increase above the $2,600 and $2,620 resistance levels.

The bulls pumped the pair above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $2,794 swing high to the $2,614 low. The pair is now moving higher above the $2,680 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

Ethereum price is now trading above $2,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price seems to be facing hurdles near the $2,700 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $2,794 swing high to the $2,614 low.

The first major resistance is near the $2,750 level. The main resistance is now forming near $2,800 or $2,820. A clear move above the $2,820 resistance might send the price toward the $2,920 resistance.

An upside break above the $2,920 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $3,000 resistance zone or even $3,050 in the near term.

Another Decline In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,750 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,655 level or the 100 hourly SMA. The first major support sits near the $2,620 zone or the trend line.

A clear move below the $2,620 support might push the price toward the $2,600 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,550 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,440.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $2,620

Major Resistance Level – $2,750