Crypto analyst Crypto Rover says Bitcoin has again touched a nine-year trendline that historically preceded parabolic rallies of 1,300%, 1,900%, 1,900% and 700%, creating optimism for a bounce and highlighting a bullish on-chain setup for crypto traders. However, Rover and analyst Ali Martinez caution the market may not have bottomed: short-term holders' realized price of $74,000 has been reached while the realized price $53,600, long-term holders' realized price $50,000 and Investor Price $48,300 remain untested, MVRV bands sit at $53,900 and $43,150, BTC trades around $62,600 and geopolitical tensions raise downside risk including potential drops below $60,000 or $50,000.

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Crypto analyst Crypto Rover has pointed to a trendline that Bitcoin has never broken below in every market cycle. The leading crypto has now touched this trendline, providing optimism that it could bounce from that level as it did in previous bear cycles.

Bitcoin Touches Trendline That Has Led To Parabolic Rallies

In an X post, Crypto Rover revealed that Bitcoin has again touched the trendline it has never broken below in 9 years. Instead, BTC has seen parabolic rallies whenever it touches this trendline. In 2017, it rallied 1,300% after touching this trendline; in 2018, it rallied 1,900% after touching it; and in 2020, it rallied another 1,900% after touching it. Bitcoin saw another parabolic rally of 700% after touching this trendline in 2022.

Now, Bitcoin has once again touched this trendline, offering optimism that it could bounce from this region as it did in past cycles. However, in another X post, Crypto Rover suggested that BTC has not yet found a bottom and could still drop below $60,000 before it bottoms. This came as the analyst alluded to BTC’s realized price.

He noted that the short-term holders’ (STH) realized price at $74,000 has been reached, but that the realized price of $53,600 and the long-term holders’ (LTH) realized price of $50,000 have not been reached. Crypto Rover added that every prior cycle bottom has traded below the realized price and that every major flush has kissed the LTH line. As such, BTC is still likely to see another move down before it bottoms.

Bitcoin is also at risk of another decline with the U.S.-Iran war escalating again. The U.S. carried out strikes against military targets in Iran, which led to retaliatory attacks against U.S. military bases in the Gulf region.

A Drop Below $50,000 Is Also A Possibility

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that Bitcoin could still drop below $50,000. This came as he pointed to the Investor Price, which he noted is currently $48,300. He said that this level is a key area he is watching for long-term accumulation. The analyst had described this metric as one of the most important BTC on-chain metrics.

Martinez explained that this metric measures the average acquisition price of all economically circulating Bitcoin, filtering out permanently lost coins to provide a more realistic market-wide cost basis. However, it is worth noting that the analyst had earlier said that there were signs that BTC was about to reach a market bottom. He pointed to the 1.0-0.8 MVRV bands, which align at $53,900 and $43,150.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $62,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.