Analyst Aralez says Bitcoin is entering a major accumulation zone and projects a new all-time high as high as $250,000 by 2029 while also warning a bear-market bottom could be around $40,000. BTC has dropped about 42% from its October 2025 cycle high of $126,000, has broken a 4-month ascending channel and trades near $70,500 with downside risk below $70,000 after Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 32 BTC and amid geopolitical headwinds, signaling near-term bearish price risk for crypto markets despite a bullish long-term scenario.

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Crypto analyst Aralez has revealed that Bitcoin is entering an accumulation zone that could propel it to a new all-time high (ATH). The analyst signaled that BTC could rally to as high as $250,000 in the next bull market.

Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Entering Major Accumulation Zone

In an X post, Aralez stated that Bitcoin is near a major accumulation zone, with BTC following a similar script to past bear market cycles. He noted that the leading crypto saw losses of 87%, 84%, and 77.5% from its cycle highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021, respectively. Now, Bitcoin is down around 42% from its October 2025 high of $126,000.

The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could bottom around $40,000 in this bear market before it then rallies to a new all-time high in the next bull run. The bottom is expected to happen between now and the start of next year. Meanwhile, the chart also showed that BTC could rally to as high as $250,000 by 2029.

Aralez’s analysis comes amid Bitcoin’s recent decline, with the leading crypto dropping below $71,000 and now at risk of dropping below the psychological $70,000 level. The latest decline came as Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced that they sold 32 BTC. This was the first time that the largest Bitcoin treasury firm has sold BTC since 2022, when it sold for a tax-loss harvesting transaction.

At the same time, a U.S.-Iran peace deal is looking unlikely anytime soon, which is also bearish for Bitcoin. Iran had suspended negotiations with the U.S. over ceasefire violations, which caused BTC to drop below $71,000. The leading crypto also failed to record any notable bounce, even as U.S. President Donald Trump said that negotiations were still ongoing.

BTC Breaks 4-Month Ascending Channel

In another X post, Aralez revealed that Bitcoin had just broken a 4-month ascending channel and that it had lost a key support after testing the $70,000 zone. The analyst then outlined what he expects next from BTC’s price action, with an acceptance below $73,000 happening and then a liquidity sweep around $70,000.

The analyst further stated that a relief bounce could follow, with a retest near $74,000, then a move lower towards $65,000, $60,000, and finally $58,000. He also warned that a mini rally is likely over and that the broader trend still points toward new local lows. Aralez added that there may be short-term bounces, but expecting a fresh push above $83,000 could be costly.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $70,500, down over 3%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.