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Two AI Stocks Jumped 20%, But Their Balance Sheets Tell a Different Story


Two AI Stocks Jumped 20%, But Their Balance Sheets Tell a Different Story

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Nebius and CoreWeave led Nasdaq gains after Q2 beats, with Nebius reporting revenue of $582.3 million (up 454% YoY) and multiple >$1 billion contracts plus a >$1 billion sale to Reflection AI, while CoreWeave posted $2.58 billion in revenue (up 112%) and a $104 billion contracted backlog with about $25 billion in new commitments and Q3 guidance of $3.45–3.60 billion. Investors cheered softer July inflation and raised targets, but both companies remain loss-making (Nebius GAAP loss $190.4 million) with heavy capex ($5.66 billion) and negative cash flow, leaving adoption and long-term impact for crypto, DeFi and AI infrastructure dependent on converting contracts into sustainable margins.

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In Brief

  • Nebius and CoreWeave both surged more than 20% on Wednesday, leading gains across the Nasdaq.
  • Nebius revenue reached $582.3 million, marking a 454% increase over the previous year.
  • Soft July inflation data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Nebius and CoreWeave led Nasdaq gains on Wednesday, both surging more than 20% after quarterly results beat expectations and softer inflation data lifted risk appetite.

The two AI cloud providers now anchor a sector in which revenue growth and cash burn advance at equal pace.

The Results That Powered Both Rallies

A neocloud is a specialized provider renting artificial intelligence computing capacity, competing against traditional hyperscalers with dedicated GPU infrastructure. Both companies operate that model.

Nebius delivered the sharper acceleration. Revenue reached $582.3 million, a 454% year-over-year increase that comfortably surpassed analyst projections. Contract wins explained much of the enthusiasm. Chief Executive Arkady Volozh highlighted four major agreements closed during the period, each averaging more than $1 billion.

A separate deal added momentum. The company agreed to sell computing power to Reflection AI in an arrangement worth over $1 billion through 2029.

CoreWeave posted comparable strength. Revenue climbed 112% to $2.58 billion, edging past consensus estimates of $2.56 billion.

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CoreWeave (CRWV) Price Performance. Source: TradingViewCoreWeave (CRWV) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Its backlog drew particular attention. Contracted revenue not yet recognized reached $104 billion at the end of June, with roughly $25 billion in new commitments added since then.

Guidance moved higher at both firms. CoreWeave projected third-quarter revenue between $3.45 billion and $3.60 billion while raising full-year expectations.

Analysts responded quickly. Baird raised its CoreWeave price target to $130 from $100, maintaining an Outperform rating on stronger deal and power metrics.

The Losses Hidden Behind the Numbers

The macro backdrop reinforced everything. July consumer price data showed moderate increases, with gasoline declining and core inflation staying contained. Rate expectations shifted immediately. Those figures reduced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, broadly supporting technology valuations.

Broader indexes participated. The Nasdaq Composite advanced between 0.5% and 0.7% during the session, while the S&P 500 posted more modest gains.

Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) Performance. Source: TradingViewNasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) Performance. Source: TradingView

Peer stocks followed the same path. Nebius and Super Micro Computer both climbed sharply as data-center and high-performance computing names attracted buyers.

Losses remain substantial at both companies, however. Nebius reported a GAAP net loss from continuing operations of $190.4 million during the quarter. Capital intensity explains the gap. The company deployed $5.66 billion in quarterly capital expenditure, building AI data centers.

CoreWeave faces similar pressure. Continued net losses and negative free cash flow reflect heavy debt-financed investment in chips and facilities. Not every analyst shares the optimism. DA Davidson cut its Nebius target to $175 from $250 while assigning a neutral rating.

Volatility defines both names regardless. Nebius has swung repeatedly by double digits this year, trading like a high-beta momentum stock rather than a stable infrastructure play.

The sector question remains unanswered. Whether contracted revenue eventually converts into sustainable margins will determine if Wednesday’s rally marks a turning point or another swing.

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