Will AI Crash Bitcoin 50%? Vitalik Buterin Weighs In
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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin dismissed AI commentator Liron Shapira’s claim that AI could push Bitcoin down more than 50% within two years (Shapira gave it 50% probability), saying he’s effectively taken the opposite side and that roughly 90% of his net worth reflects that position. Buterin argued long-term cybersecurity and protocol adaptability should prevent a break in hashing or proof-of-work, noting BTC trades near $79,827 so a 50% decline would imply about $40,000, reframing the debate as a timing risk for crypto security and adoption rather than an imminent systemic collapse.
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In Brief
- Vitalik Buterin rejects a claim that AI will crash Bitcoin 50% within two years.
- AI risk commentator Liron Shapira gave that outcome 50% confidence on X.
- Buterin says 90% of his net worth already takes the opposite side.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has rejected a warning that artificial intelligence (AI) will trigger a Bitcoin crash. He took the opposite side of a claim that BTC could lose more than half its value within two years.
The exchange played out on X on Monday. AI risk commentator Liron Shapira set the terms, and Buterin answered that his portfolio already sits on the other side.
Where the AI Bitcoin Crash Claim Came From
Shapira, who hosts the Doom Debates podcast on AI risk, published his prediction on Monday. He assigned 50% confidence to a fall of more than 50% in BTC prices over two years.
His case for an AI Bitcoin crash rests on security rather than demand. AI, in his view, will erode the guarantees that holders believed protected the network. Buterin answered in the same thread within hours.
I take the opposite side of that.My basic reasons are that I am quite optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term and I see the primary problem as being getting the transition, and I expect BTC to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus well…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) September 7, 2026
Bitcoin’s security rests on mining power and cryptographic hashing. Shapira did not specify which part of Bitcoin security AI would weaken. Similar warnings about AI cyberattacks have spread across the technology sector this year.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades near $79,827, so a 50% decline would drag it toward $40,000.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
Why Buterin Trusts the Network to Adapt
Buterin said he remains optimistic about cybersecurity over the long term. Instead, he treats the transition itself as the harder problem.
He expects Bitcoin to absorb any issue that does not require social consensus. Upgrading clients and mining pools against network-layer attacks falls into that group. He puts the odds of an actual break in hashes or proof of work at close to zero.
Buterin also assumed Shapira would say the same about Ethereum (ETH), since both men hold crypto that would fall together.
Ethereum has spent 2026 preparing for the threat from quantum computing. Researchers have started pricing the cost of post-quantum migration.
Rather than stake money on the disagreement, Buterin pointed at his own balance sheet.
“I would offer a bet, but given what my holdings are I’m basically taking this bet … with ~90% of my net worth already,” Buterin, said via X post
Therefore, the AI Bitcoin crash argument now hangs on timing. Shapira has two years to prove his case, while Buterin already holds the other position.
Read the article at BeInCrypto
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